Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Oil at $200 and Gold at $2000

I think this will become the mother of all self fulfilling prophecies.

Not because of fundamentals, not because of demand and supply equations but because of all the hype and bull that is being created by analysts that think they are reading magical crystal balls.

With every additional analyst hopping on this roaring locomotive thousands become believers and drive the price of oil and gold higher. Why? because we are human beings.

I remember the months leading to new years eve, the year 2000.

Does anybody out there remember that hoax. They actually got me convinced that I should replace my computer, as did millions of people and companies around the world. I even remember President Bush mentioning Y2K a few times.

The only thing sane minds could do is be opportunistic and profit from the hype and the BS surrounding it all. Ride the momentum of the wave but, keep an eye on its formation before it breaks.

The ride downward will be horrendous and this is the good news side of the story.

At $2000 gold, who gives a damn, we could all stop buying jewelery because that's all this stuff is good for.

At $200 oil and if the wave does not brake and continues to build momentum the whole world will come to its knees and that would still be a good news story.

The bad news is that when human beings' own existence is at stake, then people go to WAR.

I surely hope this will not be the case and that I am just being an alarmist. If war erupts, the one awaits us will be worst than the tsunami that hit my parents in the 1940's. Yes, I mean worst than WW2.

The Nintendo game being played is a very dangerous game. It is time to reboot the system now before it is too late.