Thursday, April 17, 2008

Simple Math

If you have a $1000
You lose 50% , you are left with $500
You need to make up100% of the money left and some to pay for taxes to get back to $1000.

In my book:

Rule no 1: Conserve Capital
Rule no 2: Use strategies to limit losses

Buy & Hold are you Nuts

Do you think the markets are volatile?

Blame it on the Nintendo kids.

Well, we baby boomers created them. Every time they pushed that control button they expected Mario Bros to instantaneously jump. When the game didn't workout, they crashed it and started all over.

Time flies, those kids are adults now. Some of them trade the stock market with the same intensity they used to play Nintendo. Except this is real life with real consequences.

Add to this, real time charts and quotes, point and click trading , computer triggered orders, real time news, pre and after hours trading ..etc.

This tells why I think it is nuts to buy and hold for the long haul. Not for the average investor. Not anymore.

Opposite to what I said in my previous posting if Google reported a miss that stock would have tanked, may be more than $79.

Has the world gone Crazy?

3 minutes after Google reported its results the stock jumped to $500 from the close of $449. As I write this it is trading at $528. This is $79 above the close.

Of course Google is a growth company but it is also an advertising company. Advertising companies take a beating in a slowing US economy.

What is going on with the world these days? People use their homes as an ATM machines and the stock market as the big mother of a casino.

I am glad it is not my money especially when the whole thing turns out to be a bear market rally or to use a more common term, a sucker's rally.

Some people say the rest of the world will keep the profits up so things are going to be alright.

I think this is Bull.

For example: In Canada people talk about the decoupling of our economy from that of the US. Well, home resale took a hair cut of 13% year-to-date.

And guess what, the BRIC economies will follow suit. What is going to happen to China when the Olympics are over. Or may India when food pricing keeps on rising. Don't forget the speculator have taken hold of oil and they are driving its price higher and higher.

Stay tuned for my thoughts on why I don't believe in "The buy and Hold Strategy"